Executive Summary
The report examines retail square footage, population changes, and housing supply across western states. Initial findings suggest fast-growing cities have less retail space per capita, while slower-growing areas may have surplus supply. The analysis explores how population shifts impact retail demand and whether housing and retail development remain aligned.
Q4 2024 Retail Market Snapshot: Regional Overview
National retail vacancy stood at approximately 4.7% in late 2024. Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, California, Oregon, and Washington showed varied patterns across markets:
- Houston: 5.4% availability despite net business growth
- Albuquerque: 3.5% availability with minimal new construction
- Phoenix and Tucson: Experienced increased vacancies
- Las Vegas: Demonstrated strength with 4.2% availability and rising rents
- Orange County, CA: Tight 3.8% availability
- Sacramento, CA: Struggled at 5.4% availability
- Portland: Maintained 5.8% vacancy with stabilizing conditions
- Seattle: Showed 3.2% vacancy despite net outflow of some major tenants
Retail Square Footage and Population Analysis
Metropolitan area populations in Q4 2024:
| Market | Population |
|---|---|
| Houston | 7,796,182 |
| Dallas-Fort Worth | 8,344,032 |
| San Antonio | 2,763,006 |
| Austin | 2,550,637 |
| Albuquerque | 967,000 |
| Phoenix | 5,186,958 |
| Las Vegas | 2,398,871 |
| Los Angeles | 12,927,614 |
| San Diego | 3,298,799 |
| Sacramento | 2,463,127 |
| Portland | 2,537,904 |
| Seattle | 4,145,494 |
Total retail square footage by market:
| Market | Total Retail SF |
|---|---|
| Houston | 406,481,958 |
| Dallas-Fort Worth | 428,828,186 |
| San Antonio | 125,694,747 |
| Phoenix | 491,489,084 |
| Las Vegas | 102,093,700 |
| Los Angeles | 964,398,357 |
| San Diego | 213,183,548 |
| Sacramento | 155,010,837 |
| Portland | 222,000,000 |
| Seattle | 329,137,868 |
Las Vegas and San Antonio had the lowest retail square feet per capita, while Phoenix had the highest.
Demographic Shifts and Housing Supply (2020–2024)
Texas: Cities showed inbound migration, with Houston gaining 198,171 residents and Dallas-Fort Worth gaining 177,922. All major Texas markets had increased housing availability.
Albuquerque: Experienced overall metro growth but city-level population decline, with limited new construction.
Phoenix and Tucson: Attracted residents with increased home building.
Las Vegas: Added 71,098 residents with significant housing expansion.
California: Los Angeles County declined while the broader metro grew slightly. San Diego experienced outbound domestic migration but international gains. Sacramento and Riverside-San Bernardino expanded.
Pacific Northwest: Portland initially declined but stabilized by 2023. Seattle, Spokane, Tacoma, and Vancouver all grew.
Correlation and Thesis
Fast-growing areas like Texas, Arizona, and Nevada attracted substantial new residents, driving housing and retail demand. Housing supply generally responded through increased construction. Retail development depended on local economics, land availability, zoning regulations, and changing consumer shopping patterns.
Varied retail space per capita across growing cities suggests retail development may not consistently match residential growth, presenting potential opportunities for well-positioned investors and developers. Slower-growth areas with surplus retail space face adjustment challenges. Online shopping may reduce the direct correlation between population growth and physical retail needs.
Conclusion and Outlook
Rapidly expanding cities with limited retail space per capita could offer retail development opportunities, particularly where housing growth indicates expanding customer bases. Developers should balance residential and retail construction timing. Investors should examine migration trends, housing supply, and consumer spending patterns for long-term prospects.
The regional market appears cautiously optimistic with stable national conditions. Online shopping and evolving preferences will continue shaping physical retail demand. Future research should examine retail categories and e-commerce impacts in greater depth.